4.1 The Recession

Since the second financial quarter of 2008 the Gross Domestic Product of the United Kingdom economy has been decreasing after a period of sustained growth from the early 1990s (Figure 4.1). The depth of the recession is deeper than the early 1990s and is deeper than that of the early 1980s, it has dropped 4.33% in the period quarter 1 2008 to quarter 1 2009, compared to 1980 low of 4.31% in (Figure 4.2).

Figure 4.1: Gross Value Added at basic prices: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted, 1980 to 2009 by quarters

Gross Value Added at basic prices: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted, 1980 to 2009 by quarters

Figure 4.2: Gross Value Added at basic prices: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted, year on year change.

Gross Value Added at basic prices: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted, year on year change

One of the best guides we have to the possible future effects of economic downturns are studies of previous recessions.  The best evidence comes from a study of the 1980s where it was found that in men who had been continuously employed for at least 5 years their mortality doubled in the five years after redundancy in those aged 40-59 in 1980 1.

Research into mass unemployment during the early 1990s in the United Kingdom found that people in secure employment recovered more quickly from illness. In contrast, unemployment increased the chance of being ill, especially for those who had never worked or had had poorly paid jobs 2. Unemployment increases rates of depression, particularly in the young—who form most of the group who have never worked and who are usually most badly hit when jobs are few. Parasuicide rates in young men who are unemployed are 9.5-25 times higher than in employed young men3 .

History tells us that breaking the downward trend in growth does not lead directly to improved employment.  Figure 4.3 shows the cycle of growth and unemployment.  In 1980 despite an upturn in growth in quarter 1 of 1981, unemployment did not substantially start to drop until quarter 4 of 1986, almost 7 years after the recession started.  The relationship was less stark in the 1990s but again unemployment lagged along behind growth.  It will be important to monitor unemployment, to see how quickly we can get people back in work to protect their health.

Figure 4.3: The temporal relationship between Gross Value Added and Unemployment, 1980 to 2000

The temporal relationship between Gross Value Added and Unemployment, 1980 to 2000

4.2 Unemployment in the West Midlands

The best measure we have of unemployment is Job Seeker Allowance (JSA) claimants, however changes to the benefit entitlements mean that some of the increase in the numbers of JSA claimants could be due to changes to the benefit system which were introduced in October 2008 (for Incapacity benefit claimants) and November 2008 (for lone parents claiming Income Support).

Since July the numbers claiming income support has gone up 80.7%, from 98,232
(3% of working age population) to 177,467 (5.4%) by May 2009 (Figure 4.4).  Men have been affected harder than women with claimants rising by 65% compared to 44.5% for woman.

4.3 Geographical impact

The increase in the number of claimants has been greatest in the urban centre of the West Midlands (Map 4.1).  However, the relative percentage change has been greatest in the rural areas, where there has been a more substantial increase in what had been historically low number of claimants (Map 4.2). 

Map 4.1: Increase in claimant counts April 2008 to April 2009, by Middle Super Output Area

Increase in claimant counts April 2008 to April 2009, by Middle Super Output Area

Map 4.2: Percentage increase in claimant counts April 2008 to April 2009, by Middle Super Output Area

Percentage increase in claimant counts April 2008 to April 2009, by Middle Super Output Area

4.4 Impact by Existing Deprivation

The greatest number of claimants are still from the most deprived areas, however reflecting the impact in rural areas, there have been substantial increases in unemployment in the most affluent areas, where previously these levels were low, (Figure 4.5).

Figure 4.5: Percentage change in unemployment by deprivation quintile, April 2007 to April 2009

Percentage change in unemployment by deprivation quintile, April 2007 to April 2009

4.5 Demography

As stated above, the recession has hit males more than females, and those aged 25-49 (Table 4.1).  It may be that older people are more likely to claim JSA if they become unemployed than young people. This certainly applies to the 16-19 age group, the majority of who would not be eligible to claim JSA as normally it is only available to people aged over 18, hence JSA is not the best measure of youth unemployment.

Table 4.1: JSA claimants by age and sex

4.6 Ethnicity

The recession has impacted most on the white population, with JSA claimants increasing most rapidly in the white populations.  The large percentage increase in white – other is interesting and is perhaps indicative of the growth in the Ascension Country workers from Eastern Europe (Figure 4.6).

Figure 4.6: JSA Claimants by ethnic growth

JSA Claimants by ethnic growth

4.7 Impact by Occupation

The industries which have been hardest hit, as measured by unemployment, are Customer Service with a 330% increase in claimants seeking jobs in that area (Table 4.2). 

Table 4.2: Occupations sought by claimant count, Feb 2009

4.8 What is the Health Impact?

If the trends seen in the 1980s are repeated, we can expect the risk of dying within 5 years for men who lose their job to double (relative risk 2.13 (95% confidence interval 1.71 to 2.65)), compared to those who remain in employment. Adjustment for socioeconomic variables (town and social class), health related behaviour (smoking, alcohol consumption, and body weight), and health indicators only slightly reduces the risk to 1.95 (1.57 to 2.43) indicating that it is the act of being unemployed which impacts on men. The increased risk of mortality after redundancy tends to be greater in men than in women4.  What this means is that for every 1,000 men made unemployed we could expect an additional ³ to die within the next 5 years.  That means across the West Midlands with 11,675 people aged over 50 being made unemployed by April 2008 that an additional 28 men will die prematurely due to the recession alone. The reason why men suffer more during economic downturns is because they are generally affected more from a prevailing belief that when things go wrong no one will be there to help ⁵ .

References and Further Reading

Data taken from:

• NOMIS: www.nomisweb.org.uk
• ONS: www.statistics.gov.uk

1. Morris JK, Cook DG, Shaper AG. Loss of employment and mortality. BMJ 1994; 308:1135-9
   
   
2. Bartley M, Sacker A, Clarke P. Employment status, employment conditions, and limiting illness: prospective evidence from the British household panel survey 1991-2001. J Epidemiol Community Health 2004; 58:501-6. (The major source for review of employment and health issues)
   
   
3. Morrell SL, Taylor RJ, Kerr CB. Unemployment and young people’s health. Med J Aust 1998; 168; 236-40.
   
   
4. Mathers CD, Schofield DJ. The health consequences of unemployment: the evidence. Med J Aust 1998; 168:178-83
   
   
5. Kraemer S. Review: Textbook of men’s mental health. Br J Psychiatry 2007; 161:573-