West Midlands Key Health Data 2006/07
CHAPTER TWO: A GENERATION OF CHANGE
THE POPULATION OF THE WEST MIDLANDS FROM 1981 TO 2006
Dr Richard Wilson
Main Body
7: Childhood Obesity Monitoring And Prevention Research
8: Treatment For Drug Misuse In The West Midlands 2005/6
9: Smoking And Smoking Cessation: Health Efects And Prevalence Trends
2.1 Introduction
This chapter looks back over a generation (25 years) of change in the population of the West Midlands. In particular, the chapter looks at changes in the size of the population, the age profile, and migration both internal and international. This chapter specifically avoids using population data drawn from the 2001 Census as it is widely regard as being ‘out of date’ instead it reports on data sources that are at least annually updated. Most of the data presented here is at the regional level, data for local authorities can be found on the website and CD-ROM.
2.2 Population growth
The population of the West Midlands has grown by 3.3% from 5.18 million to 5.37 million. The rate of growth is half that of England, its growth was 7.2%. Initially in the early 1980s the population was stable, but since 1986 it has grown steadily (0.1% per annum) until early in the new century when growth had increased rapidly growing at an average of 0.3% per annum (Figure 2.1). In the four years since the 2001 Census, it has been estimated that the population of the West Midlands has risen by over 84,000 which is 30,000 more than in the ten years between 1991 and 2001 just illustrating how rapidly our population is changing.
Figure 2.1: The size of the West Midlands population, 1981 to 2005
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Across the West Midlands there are substantial differences in the rate and direction of change by local authority. Over the 25 years, the urban areas have seen a decrease in their populations, whilst the rural areas have grown rapidly. (Figure 2.2)
Figure 2.2: The percentage change in total population since 1981
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Population growth is not stable. By breaking the period down into five year periods it is possible to identify those areas that have been consistently growing and those that are now either in decline or now growing once more (Table 2.1). Those which have reversed declining populations are mainly found in the West Midlands Met County.
Table 2.1: Percentage change in Population in five-year periods
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2.3 Changes in the Age profile
Over the 25 years there have been two significant changes in the age profile (Figure 2.3). There has been a decrease in the proportion of the population aged under 18. The peak seen in 1981 for both England and West Midlands has shifted on by 25 years into the 35-50 age band. The proportion of the population aged over 80 years has nearly doubled in 25 years, from 2.3% to 4.4% in the West Midlands.
Figure 2.3: Change in age profile, 1981 to 2005
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The increase in the over 80 year olds has been the result of a consistent and continuing rise in life expectancy for both males and females (Figure 2.4). Since 1981 the age to which a man could expect to live has increased from 73.2 years to 75.9 years, and for a woman it has gone up from 78.7 years to 79.9 years.
Figure 2.4: Life expectancy for males and females in the West Midlands, 1991-1993 to 2002-2004
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2.4 Migration
Another key aspect of population dynamics is migration; both internal and international. The flow of population in and out of an area will depend on how attractive it is in terms of the economic and social advantage it offers. Data is available nationally using the changes in GP registrations to examine inflows and outflows. In 2005, 98,600 people left the West Midlands for other places in the UK, most went to the East Midlands or the South West and 94,000 moved in especially from London and the South East (Figure 2.5). The West Midlands has for the last 15 years consistently seen more people moving out than into the area (Table 2.2).
Figure 2.5: Destination and origin of those UK residents who moved in or out of the West Midlands, 2005
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Table 2.2: Numbers of people moving in or out of the West Midlands,1991-2005, Thousands
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Looking at migration by age the greatest movement is of those aged 15-29 out of the region.
Figure 2.6: Movement of people in and out of West Midlands by age, 2005.
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2.5 Informing housing market intelligence using NHS patient migration data
Using the same GP registration database alluded to in the previous section, migration at a local scale can also be examined. The Urban Living Housing Market Renewal Area is an ambitious 15-year regeneration programme, which aims to improve neighbourhoods in east Sandwell and west Birmingham, where problems of low-demand housing are most acute(a) Sandwell PCT are helping Urban Living address a health and housing agenda, and as part of this have used the GP registration database to examine inter-ward movement affecting the Urban Living area.
Selecting thirteen key wards in and around the Urban Living area, movement of patients in 2005 was examined (wards affecting the Urban Living area can be seen in figure 2.9). Figure 2.7 looks at movement from the Sandwell ward of Soho and Victoria. The predominant migration is to the west, to the ward of St Pauls, also in the Urban Living area. The numbers on the map indicate the actual number of patients moving in that year, with the wards shaded according to the percentage of the population of the ward being analysed who moved. It can be seen that there is a sharp reduction in numbers over a small distance from this ward, suggesting short-distance migration is popular. This is encouraging for a housing market renewal programme as migrants are tending to move locally, thus helping to stabilise the net out migration seen in Sandwell and Birmingham since 1981 (see Table 2.1) and indeed contribute to the period of small population increase seen in the most recent period (2001-2005, Table 2.1).
(a) http://www.urbanliving.org.uk
Map 2.1: Patient migration from the Soho & Victoria ward
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In terms of the Urban Living attracting residents from outside its area, Map 2.2. shows the movement of patients from the Nechells ward of Birmingham. The predominant movement is to the east, away from the Urban Living area.
Encouragingly there is a lot of movement into the Aston ward, but the remainder of Urban Living remains unattractive in this year.
Map 2.2: Patient migration from the Nechells ward
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Map 2.3: Wards affecting the Urban Living HMRA
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A more detailed examination of inter-ward movement using NHS patient migration can be found in the Sandwell PCT report to Urban Living, “Informing housing market intelligence using NHS patient migration data” (b)
In producing their mid-year population and migration estimates, the Office for National Statistics have recognised the value and importance of GP registrations as a source of up to date demographic data. It is not without its problems; specifically the issue of list inflation (there being to many patients registered), patients lists systematically undercounting certain groups (such as young males) and the cumbersome way the data has to be extracted. However it still remains a valuable, if underused, resource for public health intelligence.
(b) http://www.researchsandwell.org.uk/research/downloads/HMRA%20migration%20March%2007.pdf
2.6 International Migration
There are gaps in our knowledge, in particular regarding ethnicity and country of birth. People are rarely asked where they were born and if it is overseas how long have they been in the UK or what their ethnicity is. It asked at GP surgeries but is poorly recorded. Country of birth is recorded on those who come to this country to work as part of our National Insurance scheme (NI). In 2005/6, there were 41,770 new registrations most of whom are from Europe (60.6%, 24,530), and Asia (25.6%, 10410).
Map 2.4: NI registrations by country of birth, 2005/6
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Map 2.5: NI registrations by country of birth in Europe, 2005/6
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